Clever Geek Handbook
3 March 2026

Global Catastrophes and Trends

Recommendation

Predicting the future is still impossible, but science has gotten much better at forecasting it, at least to the extent that it is informed by statistics and probabilities. Vaclav Smil speaks the truth as he sees it, according to mathematical information and indications. For instance, he refutes the “peak oil” scenario, but asserts that society’s transition to an economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel is long overdue, environmentally and politically. Smil predicted the financial meltdown and the flu pandemic, so clearly he’s onto something. He delves into a variety of issues in this analysis of trends and calamities, from the economic decline of the U.S. to conflicts in Muslim countries, the aging of many national populations and the depletion of essential ecosystems. BooksInShort recommends this fascinating account of the future as seen through the cold eye of a statistician.

Take-Aways

  • Occurrences that can change human history happen either as sudden catastrophes or as trends that unfold over time.
  • Science can quantify the probability of some catastrophes, like volcanic super-eruptions, but not others, like nuclear war.
  • Statistical analysis of the likelihood of future problems can guide resource use.
  • Global pandemic is certain to occur within the next 50 years.
  • Terrorist violence could change the world, but how it will occur is unpredictable.
  • The aging of populations in Europe, Russia, China, Japan and the U.S. is a long-term trend with a significant international economic impact.
  • As U.S. global dominance recedes, no evident power has yet emerged to replace it.
  • If globalization’s benefits are fairly distributed, it can help harmonize nations.
  • Human interference in the water and nitrogen cycles will affect the Earth as profoundly as human interference in the carbon cycle.
  • Overuse of antibiotics accelerates the natural resistance cycle for bacteria, blunting medicine’s ability to stop infection, already the second most common cause of death.

Summary

Catastrophes and Epidemics

Occurences that change human history can happen as sudden disasters or as slow trends, which are more reliably predictable. Think of catastrophes as “fatal discontinuities,” from unforeseeable natural events (volcanoes, tsunamis, pandemics) to conceivable human events, like nuclear war.

“As far as unpredictable discontinuities are concerned...we remain highly vulnerable to another episode of viral pandemic.”

For example, the events of September 11, 2001, demonstrated that “asymmetrical violence” inflicted on many people by a few could transform the world. Even if society can eliminate current identifiable terror threats, more terrorist organizations and causes would emerge. How such groups might attack is unpredictable. While threat of nuclear war between superpowers has decreased, the number of countries with nuclear capacity has increased, as have the chances of a terrorist group acquiring nuclear material. The most horrific “imaginable surprise” would be the deployment, even accidentally, of nuclear weapons.

“Conditions in the absence of a global leader...would resemble those following the retreat of Roman power...chaotic, long-lasting fragmentation, inimical to economic progress, which would greatly exacerbate many of today’s worrisome social and environmental trends.”

The probability of a “transformational war,” a violent conflict that would change the global political order, is statistically predictable. Since a conservative accounting of such conflicts shows 42 years of war in the past 200 years, the likelihood of a conflict in the next 50 years is some 20%.

“Rational attitudes should inform our deliberate decisions. What we get instead are increasingly splintered approaches to major challenges.”

Evidence of dramatic, precipitous climate change in the Earth’s past means science cannot rule out the possibility of rapid change in the future, whether warming or cooling. Other imaginable but incalculable risks include the impact of an unidentified but deadly pathogen or mutated micro-organism. In terms of threats from known diseases, the still-deadly Ebola, malaria and HIV/AIDS viruses do not pose as serious a mass threat to human life as the influenza virus. The 1918 to 1919 influenza pandemic killed more people than World War I. History records regular pandemics, creating a 100% chance of a serious global outbreak in the next 50 years.

Trends Place by Place

Ongoing demographic and political trends have diverse effects in various regions:

  • China – Foreign investment in China was $60 billion in 2005. With mass migration to urban centers, China has developed a large, successful export and manufacturing sector, which is harming U.S. and EU manufacturers. Today, more than 90% of Wal-Mart’s goods are made in China. Demographers estimate that China will be able to match the U.S. on defense spending by 2020; the Pentagon says 2025. Thus China will become an unequivocal global superpower. In the Cold War era, the U.S. did not rely on the U.S.S.R., but today it is growing ever more dependent on China. Some see no problem in expanding trade or in the U.S.’s growing debt to China. Other analysts fear a potentially devastating armed conflict in the Pacific. Several trends may undermine China’s growth to superpower status in the next half-century. The one-child policy, which has kept the population growing but not exploding, also has resulted in a disproportionate number of boys. This has already led to the selling of rural girls to urban bachelors. China’s environment is severely degraded and its diet is insufficiently nutritious. China doesn’t have enough farmland under cultivation to feed its anticipated population and the global market may not have enough surplus food for it to buy. Finally, China is still a closed society that does not inspire the world with either bold innovations or breathtaking art.
  • Europe – No matter how large the EU grows, Europe, with its burgeoning immigrant base, aging populations, decreasing fertility and dwindling economic production will likely never again be the global power it was in the 1900s. Europe’s reliance on a shrinking population of young people to support a growing number of retirees will exacerbate its problems. People from Muslim countries are Europe’s dominant immigrants. Ultimately, they will either assimilate, or keep expanding, in which case they will demand to live by their religion’s rules, including Shariah law, with its severe limitations on women. European tourism, however, is likely to keep increasing.
  • Japan – The country’s GDP is again rising and it seems to have arrested deflation, but Japan will probably not regain economic prominence due to its historical and cultural inflexibility, and its increasingly hostile relationships with China, South Korea and North Korea. Japan also has an aging population and a fertility rate below the replacement level. By 2050, it will be the first nation with fewer children than people aged 80 and older.
  • India – Despite many positives, India is not well-poised to emerge as a global superpower. It has serious social, environmental and economic issues. High illiteracy, low foreign investment, environmental degradation, widespread poverty and ill health all will play a part in keeping India from becoming the dominant world power.
  • Muslim nations – Even given Islam’s geographic reach, the Muslim world is politically fragmented. An internal conflict divides “fundamentalists” who have politicized the religion from would-be reformers who feel Islam has a compassionate bedrock. Muslim countries’ lack of strong secular governments means this divide will take time to manifest. Meanwhile the spread of Shariah law is precluding the emergence of democracy. Shariah’s lack of modernization and its disdain for education perpetuate cycles of poverty and sectarianism. Demographers expect the Islamic populations of the Middle East and the Arab states to double by 2050. By 2025, one in every seven people in Muslim countries (one in every 16 in Europe) will be an unmarried male in his early twenties or slightly younger, a demographic group that historically has been “assertive” and responsible for violent conflict. This trend argues for political changes in Muslim countries, particularly since the world relies on Saudi Arabia and Iran for oil, Pakistan is already a nuclear state and Iran seems on track to become one.
  • Russia – This nation’s future prospects look good because of its abundant energy resources. Russia’s natural gas reserves are 10 times larger than U.S. reserves. Russia, which is reasserting itself politically, continues to value and invest in scientific innovation. Unfortunately, its new wealth is not improving its people’s quality of life. Russians do not have long life expectancies, and the country’s population is aging. No other nation’s population will shrink so precipitously over the next 50 years.
  • The United States – Many historians believe the era of relatively peaceful U.S. global domination is over. The U.S.’s ability to project its hegemony militarily is clearly limited. U.S. growing foreign debt – $8 trillion in 2005 – undermines its economic might. While some analysts believe this portends economic collapse, others say it is nothing to worry about in a global financial system. While the debt may be cut or even eliminated, the U.S. trade deficit is more worrisome. The U.S. population is aging, and deficiencies in the healthcare and pension systems may lead to bankruptcy. The U.S. relies increasingly on other countries for such basics as industrial inputs and energy. Its reliance on despotic nations for oil is particularly troubling. The total U.S. energy trade deficit in 2005 was $265 billion. If such trends continue, the U.S. one day may even borrow money to feed itself. Moving to a service-based economy will not help. This trend points the U.S. toward dollar devaluation. Its smaller subset of prosperous people will not be able to pay current prices for its stocks and assets. U.S. education trails the industrialized world. While personal consumption rates are high, the country underfunds basic societal supports, like pensions. To reverse its retreat, the U.S. needs new policies, more frugal lifestyles and a fresh urgency about protecting the rights of future generations.
“Given the enormous amount of money...now pouring into U.S. research on anthrax and smallpox...the work on common pathogens that annually claim millions of lives...is already being shortchanged.”

A world without a superpower will become increasingly unstable and fragmented. Who will respond to emergencies and disasters? Balkanization could enhance the dangerous potential of fringe political agents. Globalization, nations’ increasing economic interdependence, should increase stability, but only where its benefits are justly distributed. Household incomes and the distribution of wealth within and among nations show little change in 50 years. Western nations’ per capita GDP has grown while per capita GDP in Africa and Asia has been declining. The middle class is shrinking; even within the great economies – U.S., Japan, China, Russia – the gap between rich and poor has been growing.

Global Environmental Issues

The world’s industrial engines rely on liquid fuel of a certain density. The demand to stay with that infrastructure is strong. Alternative energy technology is immature and alternative, renewable energy sources do not offer the same energy per volume as fossil fuels. They are harder to store and unpredictable to obtain. Only the sun supplies a surplus of energy in comparison to current need. Wind is the next most abundant source. Other sources, like geothermal or ocean waves, provide far less energy. Biomass fuel is particularly unsustainable.

“Any massive, intensive monocultural plantings of energy crops could only accelerate the decline of ecosystems.”

When it comes to global warming, carbon dioxide gets all the press, but methane, a greenhouse gas generated by agricultural usages, is “an order of magnitude” greater in terms of its heat-trapping characteristics. Ocean waters, especially in the Atlantic, have been expanding and sea levels rising. So many factors influence the calculation of the effect of ocean changes that estimates are very rough. For example, the “mean sea level increase” from 2000 to 2100 could be as high as 90 centimeters (30 inches) or as low as 10 centimeters (4 inches). Warming will intensify water cycles with more flooding in flood-prone areas and more droughts where it is dry.

“Essential ecosystemic services...have already been modified, reduced and compromised to a worrisome degree.”

The difficulty of quantifying the health impact of global warming makes economic forecasting more challenging. Warmer climates mean more allergens making more people ill and making illnesses more severe. Figuring out the cost of missed workdays or more medical care is relatively easy, but what is the economic impact of missed school days or lives spent in poor health? The world also faces environmental threats related to soil erosion, less land available for farming and more flooding as a result of faulty water management. Human activity has also changed the water and nitrogen cycles, both potentially more catastrophic than carbon dioxide warming.

“Overexploitation, loss of natural habitats, and species introductions and invasions lead to ecosystemic impoverishment and homogenization.”

Wheat, corn and rice, the staples of the worlds’ diet, are grown globally. Their cultivation consumes about 15% of the Earth’s surface, not counting ice-bound areas, and stunts the rich biodiversity of ecosystems. Loss of biodiversity erodes ecosystems’ resilience, threatens their economic utility and endangers their resident species. In fact, the rate of species extinctions is likely to grow over the next 50 years. It took millennia to perfect animal and plant species, which the planet is losing at an increasing rate (now 2% a year). Human land use creates a more homogenous environment and costs billions in lost functionality in key ecosystems. Interlocking, interconnected biological systems are complex, and people cannot duplicate or manufacture them. No one knows how much degradation any ecosystem can take before it begins to crumble.

Overusing Antibiotics

The 1940s discovery of penicillin and other antibiotics has greatly extended life expectancies. Predictably, bacterial strains have mutated to become resistant to penicillin and other antibiotics. Humans have accelerated this cycle of resistance by grossly overusing antibiotics for minor infections, and by regularly dosing livestock with them, causing resistance in wild animals as well. Infection is already the world’s second leading cause of death. If all antibiotics lose their effectiveness, humanity would suffer disastrous consequences. Most pharmaceutical companies no longer engage in the research and development necessary to produce new, effective antibiotics because the profit margin is not high enough, compared to what these companies can make on drugs people must take daily. Forty years have elapsed since manufacturers last developed new drugs to combat tuberculosis, a significant threat in impoverished nations.

“Sparrows, crows, pigeons, rats, mice and feral dogs are the inheritors of the biosphere molded by humans...The loss of biodiversity and bioinvasions have major economic consequences.”

Statistically viewing the risk of death per person per length of time exposed to danger, your chance of dying in a car wreck is three times greater than your risk of dying in a terrorist attack. This statistic, while true, does not distinguish between those who choose to take a risk over a certain period of time (say, by driving a car for an hour) and those who do not, like the innocent victims of unpredictable catastrophes that can happen at any time (though the odds of an actual terrorist event are slight in most places, even if they are higher in the Middle East). Obsession with preparedness against terrorist attacks should not keep nations from preparing for much likelier threats, like war and pandemic or even natural disasters. Threats in those areas are easier to get ready for and, sometimes, easier to predict.

About the Author

Prolific science writer Vaclav Smil teaches at the University of Manitoba. His books include Energy at the Crossroads and Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Biosphere and Civilization.

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Global Catastrophes and Trends

Book Global Catastrophes and Trends

The Next Fifty Years

MIT Press,
 


3 March 2026

Why We Buy

Recommendation

In Why We Buy, Paco Underhill reveals key principles that he and his company, Envirosell, have learned about shopping. He discusses what different types of customers see, and how they respond. He has more than 20 years experience observing some 50,000 to 70,000 shoppers a year in stores, banks, and public offices. This is an exciting, original book. It is sharply written, with a dynamic style. Underhill provides generous examples of what he and his team of trackers have learned by observing shoppers. He includes interesting anecdotes and statistics showing how shoppers behave under different circumstances. This is both a solid, carefully researched book and a joy to read. BooksInShort recommends the book to everyone in retail.

Take-Aways

  • Like an anthropologist, Underhill observes everything: where a shopper walks, when she stops, what she touches, how long she looks and whether she buys.
  • The store’s entrance area is a transition zone, not a good place to put stock or a sign.
  • People naturally move to the right. To push a new brand, stock it to the right of the most popular brand.
  • To understand how people buy, understand their basic physical needs. If people feel closed in because an aisle is too narrow, they will buy less.
  • Consider the store a "collection of zones." Map them out.
  • People who come with others will buy more if there is a chair so the non-shopping person can relax and feel comfortable.
  • Parents will stay away from a store that seems unwelcoming to children. For seniors, use larger, readable type on packages and signs.
  • Merchandising is often more influential than marketing when coaxing shoppers to buy.
  • If your service is bad, it doesn’t matter how good your stock, prices or location are.
  • Only stores can offer physical sensations and social interaction, but the Internet has other advantages: selection, convenience, speed and information.

Summary

The Science of Shopping

Paco Underhill’s understanding about shoppers is the result of more than 20 years of careful observation and data collection. He approaches it like an anthropologist studying another culture, through participant observation and carefully noting dozens of pieces of behavior.

“A good store is by definition one that exposes the greatest proportion of its goods to the greatest number of its shoppers for the longest period of time - the store, in other words, that puts its merchandise in our path and our field of vision in a way that invites consideration.”

Underhill’s crew draws a detailed map of the shopping area they are studying. They collect hundreds of hours of observations using banks of video cameras. His individual trackers each follow a single shopper. Like private investigators, they observe and record virtually everything that individual does: where she walks, when she stops, what items she picks up, how long she looks at them, whether she buys or not, and so forth. Typically, researchers list 25 data points per shopper, which means about 2,500 entries for 100 shoppers. The field trackers also do 20-question interviews with shoppers as they leave the store. Then, all of these bits of data are entered into a database and cross-tabulated in various ways to produce results about the buying behavior of different types of shoppers.

“The longer a shopper remains in a store, the more he or she will buy. And the amount of time a shopper spends in a store depends on how comfortable and enjoyable the experience is.”

It is an amazingly detailed and time-consuming process, but he uses this knowledge to create a better shopping environment. Shoppers have many choices about where and what they are going to buy, both in stores and on the Internet. The more a shopper feels comfortable and enjoys the shopping experience, the more time he or she will spend shopping and the more he or she will buy.

Understanding the Mechanics of Shopping

To understand how and why people buy, it is first important to understand their basic physical and anatomical abilities, tendencies, limitations and needs. These are all considered in designing an effective retail selling environment. Important factors include how people walk, use their hands, read signs and interact with others who shop with them. Many retailers don’t consider these factors. Unwittingly, they make bad choices in how they position products on shelves, place signs, use lighting or otherwise lay out their store and the products in it.

“The more shopper-employee contacts that take place, the greater the average sale. Talking with an employee has a way of drawing a customer in closer.”

First, think about the design of the entrance space where people come into the shopping environment. Treat this as a transition zone, in which people adjust from the outside light. Scale it to what’s inside the store. Thus, the entry way is not usually a good place to put a display of merchandise or a sign. Don’t try to "accomplish anything important" in this zone. Keep it as small as possible. For example, use it to greet customers and just say hello, or offer a basket, map or coupon.

“It is possible to anticipate and even determine how and where people will walk - that we go in predictable paths and speed up, slow down and stop in response to our surroundings.”

A second consideration is the way customers use their hands when they shop and how much space they need to shop comfortably. People who feel closed in because an aisle is too narrow or they don’t have a place to put their purchases, will buy less. That’s why displaying less merchandise and having larger aisles may result in more sales, as will offering customers baskets, bags and shopping carts. Placement is critical. It’s better to scatter baskets around the store, so shoppers can get them when they need them, rather than putting them up front. When they first come in, shoppers might not realize how much they want to buy.

“Being first isn’t necessarily best: In any section of a store, the first product customers see isn’t always going to have an advantage. Sometimes, just the opposite will happen.”

As you decide what merchandise to place where, consider the way people move through the store. You want to have a good flow with no obstacles or blind spots. People naturally move towards the right. So place your most important goods at the front of the store and to the right. It is easiest for shoppers to reach for items to the right of where they are standing, so place items accordingly. To push a new brand, stock it to the right of the most popular brand. Shoppers more easily see what’s directly ahead of them. Therefore, ’end caps,’ which display merchandise at the end of a store aisle, are very effective. Most American stores now have them.

“Where shoppers go, what they see, and how they respond determine the very nature of their shopping experience. They will either see merchandise and signs clearly or they won’t. They will reach objects easily or with difficulty. They will move through areas at a leisurely pace or swiftly - or not at all.”

The size, design and placement of signs also makes a big difference. It is not enough to decide if a sign looks good at a sales conference. You have to see how it works in the shopping environment. As a first step, you have to get the shopper’s attention. Offer the information the way people absorb it: a bit at a time, a layer at a time, and in the proper sequence. Otherwise, the information won’t register. If you overload people or confuse them, they will ignore the message. Instead, consider the store as a collection of zones, and map them out for the best placement of signs. If people are passing quickly, you need a large sign with just a few words. If you find a place where they are ready to stop and read to learn more, that’s where you should provide more detailed information.

“A better design - one that took human anatomy into consideration - might have displayed less merchandise but accommodated more customers.”

Whether people shop alone or with others affects shopping behavior, too. People who come with others will buy more if there is a place for the non-shopping person to sit, relax and feel comfortable.

Shopping Demographics

In general, men shop quite differently from women. Traditionally, women have done most of the shopping. They are more organized and take more time when they shop. They are more likely to create lists and carefully evaluate merchandise, such as taking more time to pick out the best fruit in a supermarket. By contrast, men move much faster through a store’s aisles, spend less time looking, and buy more purposefully. Women are more likely to look for and ask questions of store employees. Men tend to prefer to read information or get it from instructional videos or computer screens. They don’t like asking where things are, just like they don’t like to ask for directions when they drive.

“You can’t know how much shoppers will buy until you’ve made the shopping experience as comfortable and easy as possible.”

Since men are increasingly doing more of the shopping, you can sell more if you design a store to appeal to men as well as women. For example, set up places in the store with a more masculine design. Group products for men. Put male health and grooming products in their own section, rather than mixing them with women’s cosmetics and such.

“If shoppers can’t reach out and feel certain goods, they just won’t buy.”

Conversely, consider recent changes in women’s shopping patterns. Women still are more likely to shop with friends, but many women have less time now because they are busy. They are also buying more traditionally "male" products, such as home building supplies. Yet, they are more interested in how things function than why. Women want to see how equipment will look in a home, not just a display of different parts. That is why Home Depot has become so successful in selling not just hardware, but lifestyles.

Respond to the growing senior market. Use larger type on packages and signs to make them more readable. Have more contrasting colors and brighter stores, so they can more easily see what you are selling.

Consider how to better respond to kids, whether they are your target market or are just tagging along. Kids have become a powerful marketing force. They are especially responsive to the mass media, particularly to licensed TV characters. They are very aware of brand names and status. In turn, their parents are very responsive to what kids like, whether they are shopping for the kids or not. If a store seems unwelcoming to children, the parents are likely to stay away. If the aisles are too narrow for a baby stroller, a customer with a baby probably won’t go down those aisles or shop in that store. Put kids’ merchandise down at their eye level, where they will see it. If you need the parents’ attention for a time, for a more complicated purchase, like a car or bank loan, then find some way to keep their child happy. A restless child can distract his or her parents and disrupt a sale.

Shopping Dynamics

The third key factor in selling more successfully is the art of creating an effective presentation, providing a kind of romance or seduction for the shopper. It is what makes the shopper want to reach for the goods and own them. An underlying force that leads to this response is persuading the shopper to love something, since in the end it’s love that makes the world of retailing go round. The key elements that contribute to shoppers’ love are:

  1. Touch: Shoppers should directly experience the material world. This is critical. Almost all unplanned buying is due to the senses - seeing, touching, hearing, smelling or tasting - making merchandising often more influential than marketing.
  2. Mirrors: These attract shoppers, and help shoppers see themselves in wearable items.
  3. Discovery: Seductive hints and enticing smells (such as warm bread baking) add a sense of adventure.
  4. Talking: Shoppers experience extra enjoyment when shopping includes sociability.
  5. Recognition: People like the feeling of being known and special. It happens when an employee knows a shopper’s name.
  6. Bargains: Make a shopper feel that you are offering a good deal.

By contrast, shoppers also tend to dislike certain things strongly. They don’t like having too many mirrors, which make the store feel like a fun house. They dislike lines and become impatient waiting. Shoppers find it frustrating when information about products isn’t available. They are annoyed when products they want are out of stock and when it’s hard to find price tags. Bad service is another big turn-off, whether clerks are rude, slow, uninformed, lazy or otherwise unhelpful. Commonly, when service is bad, shoppers will go elsewhere. As a rule, bad service undoes good merchandise, prices and location almost every time.

Think about how you combine things. When you place complementary products near each other, you may be able to sell more of both. Notice how the Gap sells fragrance and candles or how the Club Monaco clothing store sells cosmetics.

Applying Shopping Principles On-Line

These principles of creating a good shopping experience can also be applied to the Internet and e-commerce. Though only stores can offer physical sensations, immediate gratification and social interaction, the Internet has other advantages. These include a huge selection, convenience, speed and plenty of information. To promote a physical store on the Internet, use it to boost image-building and corporate identification. On the Web, you can provide information about your products and where to get them. You can offer a scaled-down version or complete online version of a store. To make your online site more effective, make it easy to browse. Make it very clear what you can and can’t do. Provide ways to navigate back and forth easily through your site with good directional signs. Make it fun by using attractive graphics and interactive entertainment.

About the Author

Paco Underhill is the founder and director of Envirosell, a company devoted to analyzing shopping behavior. He has numerous corporate clients, including McDonald’s, Starbucks, Estee Lauder, Blockbuster, Citibank and Wells Fargo. He has written for many publications, including American Demographics and Adweek, and lectures widely.

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Why We Buy

Book Why We Buy

The Science of Shopping

Simon & Schuster,
First Edition:1999
 


3 March 2026

Work With Me!

Recommendation

Gini Graham Scott presents a model for handling any type of conflict using the ERI - emotions, reasons, and intuition - model. With this model, Scott calls for controlling negative emotions (E) and getting them out of the way. Then, she suggests understanding the reasons (R) for the conflict and the different conflict styles that might be used in dealing with it. The last step is and using the intuition (I) to come up with alternatives to choose the best approach. This book is well written in a clear, easy-to-understand style. The illustrations, charts, and fill-in-the-blank questions are especially helpful in showing how to apply the model in your own organization. BooksInShort recommends this book for executives and managers, although it can be applied by others in the workplace and in everyday life to deal with any kind of conflict.

Take-Aways

  • ERI stands for emotion, reason, and intuition.
  • The ERI model provides a clear lens through which to look at and resolve a difficult situation.
  • Among the biggest obstacles to resolving any conflict are the negative emotions - such as anger, jealousy, mistrust, and fear - which stand in the way.
  • The first step is to get control of and deal with the negative emotions.
  • The second step is to apply your reason to recognizing the factors that contribute to a conflict and to use an appropriate strategy to deal with it.
  • The third step is to use your intuition to help you think about different alternatives and choose the best possibility.
  • You should approach resolving conflicts as a goal-oriented, problem-solving process, and use the ERI model to help you move through it.
  • You can solve conflicts better if you take into account the interests, wants, and needs - or IWNs - of different people.
  • The "conflict styles model" is useful in choosing how to approach a conflict.
  • Besides using the basic principles of good communication, pay attention to hidden agendas, meanings, and feelings.

Summary

The Pervasiveness of Conflict and Using the ERI Model to Resolve It

Conflicts and other difficult situations occur naturally and inevitably in every organization and work environment, since individuals have different interests, goals, and priorities. Conflict also occur due to limited resources, communication problems, struggles over power, incorrect assumptions, mistaken perceptions, and personality clashes. Additionally, some people are just very difficult to work with as a matter of course.

“The basic principles of good communication may sound like little more than common sense: be clear, be direct, be complete, and be appropriate. Nevertheless, many people are unaware of these principles or they fail to observe them.”

However, you can do a better job of resolving these conflicts and other difficulties, whatever your role is at work, by treating them as problems to be solved. To reach a solution, use the three-step ERI - emotions, reasons, and intuition - model. This model includes these three steps:

  1. First, you seek to "calm the emotions" in the situation, whether these emotions are yours or not.
  2. Next, you "use reason to assess, understand, and evaluate the situation and the personalities caught up in it."
  3. Finally, you "use intuition to think of possible solutions and alternatives." Add in a dose of reason to evaluate your possible options, and use your intuition to select the way you want to respond.
“Good communication can solve some problems, but poor communication can be the cause of many more.”

As you use these approaches, apply various techniques as appropriate to deal with each particular type of difficulty. The model may seem to involve applying each process in a linear way, in fact, these elements blend together into an integrated whole. These skills give you a repertoire of tools you can draw upon in a conflict. With practice, you can decide quickly which ones to apply in a particular situation. Or you can create priorities, so you can handle the most important problems first.

Understanding the Basics of the ERI Model

Think of the ERI model as a "goal-oriented, problem-solving process." Minimally, you can use it to shape the way you behave. The greater your power and influence, the more you can accomplish in resolving problems. This model can help you come up with effective, creative alternatives. It will also help you decide when to stay away from a situation and not try to resolve it now.

“If you have an understanding of your organization’s cultural and political environments, you can avoid falling into some kinds of difficult situations - or, if you have fallen in, you may be able to get out more easily.”

Often it is a good idea to act to resolve problems in the early stages. This is particularly true when a workplace conflict occurs between people who will continue to work together. Otherwise, anger, confusion, and other negative emotions can build up, making the conflict worse, even when these feelings aren’t expressed openly. It is especially important to deal with the underlying source of the problem, because minor problems start to escalate and spread. In some cases, this means working out a dispute between individuals - but at times, you may need to make changes in the whole workplace, such reassigning people to different work areas or divisions.

“Negative emotions - anger, mistrust, fear, jealousy, envy, guilt, shame - contribute to problems and stand in the way of solutions. They are like a wall of fire: the intense heat of these emotions pushes people apart, and the emotional ’smoke’ of the conflagration prevents clear vision.”

The ERI model can help you decide the best approach, since it gives you a clear lens through which to view problems in a calm detached way. This perspective can help you detect and cool off other people’s emotion, analyze what is going on, and determine the best approach. Use your intuition to help you decide.

“The ERI model offers a clear lens through which to view difficult situations. Once you yourself have achieved the necessary calm detachment, you are more able to detect and cool down the emotions of others, analyze the problem, and assess what to do - drawing, as necessary, on your intuition in your efforts to help.”

Think of the ERI model as the three angles of a triangle. The emotions (E) are at the top, the intuition (I) is on the left, and the reason (R) is on the right. You have to deal with the emotions first, so they are calmed down and out of the way. Then, you can draw on your reason and intuition to help you set a strategy for approaching and resolving the conflict. Follow these three steps: notice when difficulties occur, decide if the problem is serious enough for you to intervene at this time, and, if so, take action, based on knowledgeably determining what to do to achieve the best outcome.

Working With Your Emotions

One of the biggest obstacles to resolving any conflict is the negative emotions which get in the way. These emotions include feelings such as anger, jealousy, mistrust, and fear. At times, people may express these feelings openly, when they explode with anger or retreat in fear. Often, these feelings are kept out of sight under the surface, but they are reflected in a variety of destructive actions such as quiet sabotage and back stabbing.

“It is impossible to avoid conflict entirely, but there are three keys to resolving or minimizing conflict. The first is to recognize difficulties when they occur. The second is to decide when a problem is serious enough to warrant intervention, and the third is to take action that is based on knowledge of what should be done to achieve the best result.”

It is important to bring your unconscious emotions to the surface, so you can deal with them. You might notice you have feelings, such as a strong reaction to someone or some event. Regard such outward behavior as a signal that something is wrong. Ask yourself the reasons for your reaction.

Once you have your own emotions in check, then you can help the other person deal with his or her emotions. If someone is angry, you can suggest a cooling-off period. Or, you can listen to their reasons and show that you really want to understand and help deal with the problem.

Resolving Communication Problems

Communication problems are often a source of conflict. Communication can break down for many reasons: not being clear, not listening well, or someone says one thing and the listener thinks you mean something else. Whatever the reason, communication problems often come from negative emotional states, which cause even further communication breakdowns.

“The basic way to use the ERI model is to regard each conflict or difficult situation less as a conflict or difficulty per se than as a problem to be solved.”

Use the basic principles of good communication: be clear, direct, complete, and appropriate in what you say. When it is feasible, help others do the same. Pay attention to hidden agendas, meanings, and feelings. They often signal looming conflicts. Notice discrepancies between nonverbal and verbal communication. Be alert for the signs of negative feelings, such as anger and resentment. Pay attention if someone is expressing positive support and agreement verbally, but using body movements, gestures, or a tone of voice that does not fit their words. That discrepancy can signal underlying disagreement, reluctance, or even hostility. Be aware of your own and other’s assumptions as well, since conflicts often result when people act on hidden or mistaken assumptions.

“Reason, the second element of the ERI model...allows you to do two fundamental things: recognize the factors that may be contributing to a particular situation, and use an appropriate strategy for approaching and resolving the situation.”

Good listening is another key to good communications. Practice "active listening," which involves being truly present when another person communicates with you and listening with understanding and interest.

Work With Reasoning

Use reasoning to discern the major factors contributing to conflicts and the types of approaches you might use to deal best with different situations. First, pay attention to three types of organizational factors: your organizational culture, organizational politics, and the individual stakes or interests which people have in different outcomes. Your organizational culture, which includes your company’s traditional way of doing things, and its written and unwritten rules and policies, can affect the types of conflicts that occur. So can office politics and personal concerns. For example, one woman was constantly in conflict with her employer and co-workers because she was very aggressive and brash. The others had a much more laid-back style. Often she triggered hidden resentments and outward antagonism. In the end, the best solution was for her to leave the company because she just didn’t fit the organizational culture.

“After you have recognized that there is a problem - whether you’re confronting a conflict, a difficult person, or another issue - a key step is to generate and weigh different possibilities for solving that problem.”

A second major consideration is that different people have different IWNs - interests, wants, and needs. Thinking about how to satisfy other people’s IWNs will help you achieve your own. Create a list of the motives you believe impel those involved in a conflict. Consider the parties’ primary stated interests, wants, and needs, as well as possible hidden ones. Think about which individuals or groups are most important to satisfy when there are conflicting IWNs.

Working with Difficult People and Selecting an Appropriate Conflict Style

You can handle conflict resolution more effectively if you know the interests, needs, and wants of difficult people. Some respond to conflicts emotionally. These types include the Exploder, Complainer, Sulker, Sensitive Soul, and Worrier. Other personalities use their power to manipulate and control others. These types include the Pusher, Judge, Steamroller, and Control Freak. Some are difficult because of the way they deal with rules, i.e. being too rigid, ignoring rules, or making up their own. This group includes the Clock Watcher, By-The-Booker, Tit-For-Tatter, Do-It-My-Wayer, Nay-Sayer, Super-Agreeable Flake, and Procrastinator. Recognize these groups and use different conflict resolution strategies with each different type.

“There is no one right approach, but if you are aware that there are various specific styles of handling conflict, and if you have some knowledge of the circumstances in which each style is most likely to be effective, you can draw as necessary on these styles.”

When you are dealing with different types of people and situations, you can use a widely used model of conflict styles, originally conceptualized by Kenneth W. Thomas and Ralph H. Kilmann in the early 1970s as the Conflict Mode Instrument. It offers five styles of handling conflict based on how assertive you are in expressing your own interests and how cooperative you are in taking into account other’s interests. These five styles are:

  1. The Competing style, where you are more forceful and confrontational.
  2. The Collaborating style, where you take time to discuss each other’s concerns and interests.
  3. The Accommodating style, where you go along with what others want.
  4. The Avoiding style, where you avoid or delay dealing with a conflict.
  5. The Compromising style, where you and the other party each give up a little to resolve the problem.

Selecting the best approach includes weighing the particular circumstances, the personality factors, organizational culture, the IWNs of the various parties, and other considerations. Using compromise or collaboration, you can resolve a conflict better knowing how to negotiate effectively and working toward a win-win solution.

Use Your Intuition to Put It All Together, Decide What to Do, and Take Action

Once you understand the reasons for the conflict and the different approaches available, use your intuition to make critical decisions on how to resolve problems. You intuition will help you make choices and feel confident that you have chosen the best approach. One technique is brainstorming. Though it is often done in a group, you can do it on your own. Get relaxed and ask yourself specific questions. Write or tape your responses. Think of as many answers as you can without trying to judge them. Review these ideas and choose the best ones.

You can also use visualization and self-talk. Consult your "inner expert" by going into a meditative state. Visualize your inner expert’s face as if on a TV screen or computer monitor. Ask your inner expert questions, and listen to the answer. If you are less visually oriented, you may prefer using self-talk, where you listen internally to a free flow of thoughts or words after you ask yourself a question.

About the Author

Gini Graham Scott, Ph.D., J.D, is a nationally-recognized author, organizational consultant, speaker, and seminar leader in the areas of conflict resolution, organizational development, social dynamics, and creativity. She is the author of the classic Resolving Conflict and, most recently, Making Ethical Choices, Resolving Ethical Dilemmas. She has written more than thirty books on a variety of topics, including conflict resolution, business law, groups and organizations, social dynamics, lifestyles, and creativity. She is founder and president of Changemakers and of Creative Communications and Research.

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